Islamabad. The biggest impact of the fear of America’s possible military attack on Iran is visible in Pakistan’s concern. Amid discussions of Donald Trump’s attack plan, Pakistan fears that if there is a change of power or large-scale instability in Iran, the fire of rebellion in its restive Baluchistan province may intensify. This is the reason why Pakistan is considering this entire incident as a serious strategic threat for itself.
Let us tell you here that there is about a 900 kilometer long border between Pakistan and Iran, which directly borders Pakistan’s most sensitive province, Balochistan. This is the same area where the separatist movement has been going on for decades. Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province is also located on this border, where the Baloch community living has ethnic, linguistic and tribal relations with the Baloch of Pakistan. In such a situation, any kind of turmoil in Iran can directly impact Pakistan. In this matter, former Pakistani Ambassador Asif Durrani says that whether there are internal changes in Iran or external interference, it will have a direct impact on the internal security of Pakistan. According to security experts, if the situation in Iran worsens, Baloch rebel groups may get new bases and support, which may increase cross-border terrorism, arms smuggling and violent incidents.
Many insurgent organizations are already active in Balochistan, which have been targeting Pakistani security forces as well as Chinese projects. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through this province and any instability in it can prove to be a major blow to Pakistan’s economy. Separatist groups have openly demanded separation of Balochistan from Pakistan, which further deepens the fear of ‘breakup’.
Pakistan is also afraid of another big refugee crisis. Pakistan is already under immense economic pressure due to the arrival of millions of refugees from Afghanistan in 2021. If there is a war or change of regime in Iran, there is a possibility of a large number of Iranian refugees coming to Pakistan, which the economy running on IMF loan will not be able to bear. Former Foreign Secretary Johar Salim has warned that any kind of external interference in Iran could destabilize the entire region. It is also believed in the Pakistani media that the fall of power in Iran could become not just a diplomatic but an existential crisis for Pakistan.
